AGP Executive Report

Climate & Security Risk: A new Adelphi report warns Mali’s decade of conflict is being worsened by rainfall variability and more extreme weather, with weak governance and socio-economic exclusion driving instability across regions including Gao, Kidal, Timbuktu, Mopti and Segou. Sahel Humanitarian Strain: Save the Children says school closures in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have left hundreds of thousands of children out of school, raising the risk of recruitment by armed groups. Food Crisis: Drought, conflict and displacement are pushing severe hunger and malnutrition in Niger’s Maradi and Nigeria’s Katsina, with harvests down sharply and violence straining already limited resources. Refugees in the Lake Chad Basin: Violence has driven 360,000 refugees into Niger, adding pressure to a country already facing extremist threats. Regional Security Talks: ECOWAS leaders reaffirmed commitment to fight insecurity, including re-engagement plans tied to political transitions in Mali and neighboring states. Mali Governance & State Capacity: Mali has unveiled a refurbished presidential Boeing 737 after the 2024 Bamako attacks, citing costly restoration and geopolitical constraints. International Criminal Court Fallout: The US says more African states are moving to quit the ICC, naming Mali among those that have notified withdrawal intentions.

ICC Pressure on Africa: The sacking of ICC prosecutor Karim Khan and renewed US push to “dismantle” the court come as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and others weigh withdrawal, with Washington warning service members could face long-delayed indictments. Human Rights in Mali: Human Rights Watch says Russian Africa Corps airstrikes in central Mali killed eight civilians, including three children, and argues the Malian government must hold allied forces accountable. Mali Security Update: Analysts warn Mali’s crisis is worsening as al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and separatist FLA coordinate, boosting attacks and pressure on the junta. Regional Diplomacy: Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye makes his first visit to Mali as the new ECOWAS chair, aiming to rebuild ties with Sahel states. Governance & Accountability: Mali’s refurbished presidential Boeing 737 was unveiled after damage in the 2024 Bamako attacks, with officials citing restoration costs and equipment access limits. Energy Policy Watch: Separate from Mali, lawmakers elsewhere move to stop charging consumers for electricity theft and system inefficiencies—an issue Mali readers may watch as power costs stay politically sensitive.

Human Rights Watch vs Mali’s allies: HRW says Russia-backed Africa Corps airstrikes in central Mali’s Kyrnia village on June 15 killed eight civilians, including three children, and claims no JNIM fighters were among the dead, calling for accountability for both the attackers and Mali’s government. Security shake-up in Mali: Analysts say al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) are coordinating more closely, driving a sharp rise in attacks and fatalities against Mali’s forces. Mali’s conflict deepens: Separate reporting highlights how militants and separatists are escalating pressure on the junta, with major attacks reported across the country. ECOWAS diplomacy: Senegal’s President Diomaye Faye begins a high-stakes visit to Mali as ECOWAS chair, aiming to rebuild ties with the AES bloc after the Sahel states’ withdrawal. Economy and jobs: Mali’s Council of Ministers approved plans for a national textile company and a cotton fibre processing push to add value beyond raw exports. International pressure on the ICC: US officials say Mali is among countries moving to quit the International Criminal Court, as Washington warns the court could target service members.

Security Crisis in Mali: Human Rights Watch says Russia’s Africa Corps airstrike in central Mali on June 15 killed eight civilians, including three children, and found no evidence militants were hit. Regional Diplomacy: Senegal’s President Diomaye Faye, newly ECOWAS chair, begins a high-stakes visit to Bamako aimed at rebuilding ties with the AES bloc. Escalating Conflict: Analysts warn Mali’s worst security crisis in years is deepening as al-Qaeda-linked JNIM and separatist FLA coordinate attacks, with militant fatalities up sharply this year. Aid and Food Security: Russia delivered 770 tonnes of yellow split peas to Mali via WFP to support more than 57,000 people, including displaced families. Sahel Security Debate: Commentaries argue the region needs real security cooperation beyond solidarity statements as armed groups adapt and alliances grow.

Malian Security & Regional Ties: ECOWAS Chair Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye begins a high-stakes visit to Mali, aiming to reopen dialogue with the AES bloc after the Sahel states’ withdrawal and months of political estrangement. Sahel Terror Threat: Analysts warn the Sahel security crisis is shifting fast, with evolving alliances and tactics by groups like JNIM and the FLA-JNIM coalition, demanding deeper, active cooperation involving Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger—not just solidarity statements. Russia–Mali Food Support: Russia delivered 770 tonnes of yellow split peas to Mali via WFP to support food security for over 57,000 people, including internally displaced persons and refugees. Human Rights & Media Pressure: WAJSIC reports worsening press freedom and journalist safety risks across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, citing legal restrictions, surveillance, intimidation and economic pressure. Women’s Health in Mali: UN Women-backed community work highlights efforts to end female genital mutilation in Mali, using trusted local voices to shift norms.

ECOWAS Diplomacy: Senegal President Bassirou Diomaye Faye began a high-stakes 24-hour visit to Mali as the new ECOWAS chair, signaling renewed dialogue with the Sahel states after Mali’s withdrawal and the wider ECOWAS-AES rift. Sahel Media Freedom: WAJSIC released a report saying press freedom and journalist safety are worsening across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, citing legal pressure, surveillance, intimidation and growing exile risks. Timbuktu Heritage: Timbuktu marked the 600th anniversary of the Sankore Mosque with a two-day event highlighting its role in Islamic scholarship and education, with UNESCO support. Security Outlook: Analysts warn that weakening counterterrorism support and leadership gaps are creating space for violent extremist groups to expand across the Sahel. Gold Deal Update (Mali-linked): Allied Gold’s $5.5bn takeover by Zijin Gold collapsed, but Zijin will still invest about $295m for a 9.2% stake; Allied’s portfolio includes Mali’s Sadiola mine.

ECOWAS Diplomacy: Senegal President Bassirou Diomaye Faye begins his first visit to Mali as ECOWAS chair, aiming to reopen dialogue with Bamako after Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger left the bloc to form the AES. Sahel Security: Analysts warn that weakening regional and international counterterrorism support is creating space for violent extremists to expand across the Sahel, with Mali facing one of its gravest security crises. Mali-US Military Signals: Reports say the U.S. is weighing possible military action in Mali against JNIM, as insurgent groups strengthen and new alliances emerge. Timbuktu Heritage: Timbuktu marked the 600th anniversary of the Sankore Mosque, highlighting its historic role in Islamic scholarship and education, with support from Malian ministries and UNESCO. Climate & Health: A new study says climate change is shifting malaria risk across sub-Saharan Africa—reducing cases in today’s hottest hotspots (including parts of West Africa like Mali) while raising risk elsewhere as temperatures rise.

US–Mali Security: Washington is reportedly weighing military action against JNIM, as Mali says it has no official confirmation and insists it “counts above all on itself,” highlighting Bamako’s tightrope between seeking help and protecting sovereignty. International Justice: Chad has joined Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in starting withdrawals from the ICC, accusing the court of bias toward Africa as the tribunal faces a wider credibility crisis. Sahel Media Pressure: WAJSIC released a report on press freedom in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, warning of rising legal restrictions, surveillance, intimidation and forced exile for journalists. Diplomatic Rift at the UN: The US staged a walkout at the UN Security Council after France criticized Washington’s human rights stance, with Mali among countries cited in the dispute. Regional Engagement: Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye visited Bamako for talks with Mali’s junta leader Assimi Goïta, signaling continued diplomatic and security cooperation.

Sahel Media Under Pressure: WAJSIC released “The Sahel: The State of the Media 2025–2026,” a report on press freedom and journalist safety in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, citing legal restrictions, sanctions, digital surveillance, economic pressure, and intimidation, plus growing risks for reporters in exile. Mali’s Security Crossroads: A new analysis says the US is weighing military options against JNIM in Mali, while Bamako says it has no confirmation and “counts above all on itself,” underscoring how foreign help is being handled quietly. Diplomacy and Regional Ties: Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye arrived in Bamako for talks with Mali’s junta leader Assimi Goïta, his first trip since taking the ECOWAS chair. International Justice Rift: The ICC faces accelerating withdrawals as Mali is named among countries voting against UN human rights chief Volker Türk’s renewal, amid a wider US–France diplomatic clash that included a UN Security Council walkout.

ICC Withdrawal Wave: Chad has joined Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso in starting the process to leave the International Criminal Court, saying the tribunal is “limited and uneven” and disproportionately targets Africa, while the U.S. has urged other ICC members to follow. UN Rights Rift: The U.S. and France escalated their clash at the UN Security Council over the reelection of Volker Turk as human rights chief, with the U.S. staging a rare walkout during France’s remarks. Sahel Security & Jihad Narrative: Niger’s President Abdourahamane Tiani condemned killings carried out under the banner of jihad as manipulation, urging citizens not to be misled. Climate Shock for Mali: The AfDB warns a possible “super” El Niño could cost Africa $10bn–$20bn, cut GDP by 1–2% in hard-hit countries, and trigger mass displacement—Mali is among the northern Sahel states flagged in related heat-and-cooling risk reports. Women’s Jobs in Mali: Qatar Charity opened four cotton thread workshops in Mali, training women’s cooperatives to boost incomes and strengthen local textile value chains.

Women’s Economic Empowerment in Mali: Qatar Charity opened four cotton thread production workshops in Mali, equipping machinery and training women from four cooperatives to process cotton fibres and earn steady income, aiming to boost local cotton value and support textile and handicraft jobs. Climate & Resilience: Mali launched its 32nd annual National Reforestation Campaign, targeting 20 million trees by year-end, with leaders stressing that planting must be matched by care. Sahel Security Watch: Analysts warn that insecurity is reshaping militant alliances and cross-border movement across the Lake Chad and Sahel region, with groups coordinating deployments that complicate counter-terror efforts. Global Justice Pressure: Mali is among Sahel states linked to the wider wave of withdrawals from the ICC, as the court faces a leadership crisis after Karim Khan’s dismissal and member states seek a new prosecutor. Regional Climate Shock: The AfDB warns a “super” El Niño could cost Africa $10bn–$20bn and trigger mass migration, threatening food, water, and public finances.

Malian Conflict Update: Northern Mali’s security crisis is deepening after an unprecedented battlefield partnership between the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM, with coordinated offensives stretching across regions and raising pressure on the Malian army and Russia’s Africa Corps. Verified Drone Strikes: Open-source investigators report Shahed-136-type kamikaze drones used in Mali village attacks, pointing to Russian-made systems and a new combat phase. Sahel Security & Diplomacy: Russia, the U.S. and AES states (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger) voted against extending UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk’s mandate to 2030, escalating human-rights diplomacy around Mali and the Sahel. Climate Shock for Mali: The AfDB warns a “super” El Niño could cost Africa $10bn–$20bn and worsen food insecurity and displacement, with Mali among heat-vulnerable countries facing higher death risks without cooling energy. Sports: Former Mali midfielder Kalilou Traoré has died in a road accident at 38, prompting tributes after his 2013 AFCON bronze campaign.

ICC Crisis in Focus: The Assembly of States Parties voted 82-13 to remove Karim Khan as ICC prosecutor over sexual misconduct allegations, with African states pushing for more influence as the court’s leadership reshuffles. Sahel Security & Mali: Reports say the U.S. is weighing strikes against the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM in Mali, while Mali’s foreign minister says Bamako has received no official communication. Mali Conflict Footage: Open-source verification links Shahed-type drones to Mali strikes, pointing to expanding Russian support. Morocco–Mali Economic Ties: Morocco and Mali signed economic partnership agreements, and King Mohammed VI ordered the handover of a Bamako vocational training complex to Mali, targeting construction and hospitality skills. Regional Finance Skills: Two Mali professionals are among WAEMU participants completing the first phase of a COFEB finance master’s program in Dakar. Education & Human Development: A global literacy roundup places Mali among the least literate countries, underscoring how conflict and underinvestment keep adult reading rates low.

Sahel Security & Jihadist Pressure: Reports say the U.S. is weighing military action against the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM in Mali, while Bamako says it has seen the claims only through media and is waiting for official communication. Human Rights at the UN: Mali, along with Burkina Faso and Niger, voted against extending the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights’ mandate until 2030, arguing the office is politically biased. Climate Shock for Mali: The AfDB warns a “super” El Niño could hit Mali and other African states with a combined $10–$20 billion loss, worsening food and water stress and raising conflict and displacement risks. Energy & Trade Links: Algeria has started work on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, a route that could connect West African gas to Europe via Niger and Algeria—raising stakes for regional energy corridors. Morocco–Mali Cooperation: Morocco and Mali moved to deepen business ties, and King Mohammed VI ordered the handover of a vocational training complex in Bamako to support construction and hospitality skills for youth. Migration Pressure: Niger remains a key transit route for Nigerians heading toward Europe, with 1,429 repatriated from Niger in May 2026.

Hunger Watch: FEWS NET projects 16.0–16.99 million Nigerians will need urgent food aid by January 2027, still above last year and the five-year average, as conflict and climate pressures bite. Sahel Security: Reports say the U.S. is considering strikes in Mali against JNIM, while Bamako says it has received no official communication and is waiting for clarification. Mali Conflict & Warfare: Open-source reporting links Shahed-type drones to Mali village attacks, with geolocated strikes in Inafarak (July 12) and Talahandak (July 17) pointing to expanding drone support. Fuel Supply: A convoy of 880 fuel tankers reached Bamako under army escort to help stabilise Mali’s fuel market. Morocco–Mali Ties: Morocco and Mali move ahead on business cooperation, including a relaunch of the Moroccan-Malian Business Council, and King Mohammed VI’s handover of the vocational training complex to Malian authorities. Regional Politics: ECOWAS leaders reaffirm plans for a single currency in 2027, with debate continuing over regional priorities.

Mali–Morocco Business Push: Mali and Morocco signed economic partnership agreements in Bamako as the 4th session of their Joint High Commission opened, with talks on infrastructure, adding value to raw materials, and expanding trade links. Royal Skills Boost: King Mohammed VI ordered the handover of the Mohammed VI Vocational Training Complex in Bamako for construction/public works and for hospitality, tourism and foodservice, aiming to train nearly 1,000 youths per year. Sahara Diplomacy: Mali reiterated support for Morocco’s Sahara autonomy plan, citing UN efforts and Security Council Resolution 2797 as the basis for resolving the regional conflict. Fuel Supply Update: A convoy of 880 fuel tankers reached Bamako on 24 July under army escort, with authorities promising strict control of distribution to stabilize prices. Security & Foreign Pressure: Reports say the US is weighing military options in Mali against al-Qaeda-linked JNIM, while open-source groups also document Russian-made Shahed-type drones being used in northern Mali.